香港政府房屋政策制定的市场效应

Jun.2005,Volume2,No.6(SerialNo.7)JournalofUS-ChinaPublicAdministration,ISSN1548-6591,USA24******199719971997199712850001997*2005852-2859-8932852-2559-9457Homepagewww.lilinghin.comE-mail:[e-mail].*****E-mail:[e-mail].119978500070%2See“BuildingHongKongforaNewEra”,PolicyAddressbytheChiefExecutiveofHKSARgovernment,C.H.Tung,October,1997,HongKong:GovernmentPrinter.25199750%60%1199762003109216%200030%20101998Walker,etal.19951199019952000570461566782%51.053.049.144.641.933.06.411.116.144.344.549.51.61.00.13.11.51.346%51%53%HongKongHousingAuthority2001119902000HOS44.6%33%6.4%16.1%46%53%199726Evans1995Warren,2000Dowall1992123Meulenbelt1994PhangandWong1997PhangandWong19971PRPIPRPI198939.91002TPRPI1990271200043UR——NIRGDP1990TSRHOSCPI19901990=100319921245%7HOS199512121997101998219973850005000035000200770%200341998630%199819991998919992105L92119920L95119950L97119970L98A119980L98B119980L99119980S92=L92(t-12)S95=L95(t-24)3“BuildingHongKongforaNewEra”,PolicyAddressbyChiefExecutiveC.H.Tung,October,1997,HongKong:GovernmentPrinter.428S97=L97(t-32)S98A=L98A(t-34)S98B=L98B(t-35)S99=L99(t-37)t2ModelRRSquareAdjustedRSquareStd.ErroroftheEstimate1.994.989.98011.5662a.Predictors:(Constant),T,UR,TSR,NIR,CPI,GDP,HOS,L92,L95,L97,L99,L98A,L98B,S92,S95,S97,S98A,S98B,S993UnstandardizedCoefficientsStandardizedCoefficientsModelBStd.ErrorBetatSig.(Constant)205.999211.185.975.339T12.9406.6231.9771.954.062NIR-9.3935.157-.141-1.821.081GDP3.697.833.9104.438.000CPI-3.8082.115-1.339-1.800.084L92-39.78112.550-.214-3.170.004L95-45.14012.356-.277-3.653.001S959.7653.147.7403.103.005L98B52.89525.119.2652.106.046S98B70.35026.9191.7412.613.015S97-100.02519.420-3.778-5.151.0004VariablesexcludedUnstandardizedCoefficients-BetatSig.Unemploymentrate(UR)-12.656-1.564.131Totalsupplyofcompletedresidentialunits(TSR)2.037E-04.301.766HOS1.456E-031.617.119S922.196.627.536L973.191.198.845L98A46.6001.589.125S98A0.408.0190.998L996.097.214.832S99-.419-.021.984PRPIt=205.999+12.94T+(-9.393)NIR+3.697GDP+(-3.808)CPI+(-39.781)L92+(-45.14)L95+9.765S95+70.35S98B+52.895L98B+(-100.025)S97290.989PRPIWilk-ShapiroP0.7208SPSSt419981999S98AS98A19986199939L98AS98AL927500S921995L95S95199419951995L98BS98B1998199785000S97199710L99S9919993019971997108500070%15200185000199819973105010015020025030035040045019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000OverallDomesticOverall-RetailOverall-OfficeOverall-Industrial::(A)40(D&E)1001Davies,GordonW.(1977).AnExaminationofthemarketforurbansingle-familydetachedlots,Journalofregionalscience,vol.17:243-253.2Dowall,DavidE.(1992).BenefitsofMinimalLand-useRegulationinDevelopingCountries,CatoJournal,vol.12:413-423.3Evans,Alan,W.(1995).ThePropertyMarket:NinetyPerCentEfficient?,UrbanStudies,vol.32:5-29.4Hayek,Friedrichvon(1944).TheRoadtoSerfdom,London:GeorgeRoutledge&SonsLtd.5HongKongAnnualReport,HongKongGovernmentPrinter,Variousissues.6HongKong.CensusandStatisticsDepartment.HongKongannualdigestofstatistics,HongKongGovernmentPrinter,501001502002503003504001/843/841/853/851/863/861/873/871/883/881/893/891/903/901/913/911/923/921/933/931/943/941/953/951/963/961/973/971/983/981/993/991/003/00deflatedpropertypriceindex(overall)deflatedpropertypriceindex(A)deflatedpropertypriceindex(B)deflatedpropertypriceindex(C)deflatedpropertypriceindex(D&E)32Variousissues.7HongKong.GovernmentSecretarist.FinancialServicesBranch.EconomicAnalysisDivision:EconomicBackground,HongKongGovernmentPrinter,Variousissues.8HongKong.GovernmentSecretaristHousingBranch(1997).Longtermhousingstrategyreview:consultativedocument,HongKongGovernmentPrinter.9HongKong.LandCommission(1887).ReportfromtheHongKongLandcommissionof1886-1887onthehistoryofthesale,tenure,andoccupationofthecrownlandsofthecolony:withrecommendationsfortheirfutureregulationandcontrolandthefacilitationoftransferandalsoonthealleviationofovercrowdinginthecityofVictoria,togetherwithappendix,HongKongGovernmentPrinter.10HongKong.Planning,EnvironmentandLandsBranch.AssessmentofFutureLandSupplyintheTerritory,AnnualReport,Variousissues.11HongKong.Planning,EnvironmentandLandsBranch(1994).ActionPlan:PropertypricesandHousingSupply.HongKong:Planning,EnvironmentandLandsBranch.12HongKong.Planning,EnvironmentandLandsBranch(1996).AConsultativeDigestTerritorialDevelopmentStrategyReview’96,HongKongGovernmentPrinter.13Li,Ling-hin(1997).DevelopmentappraisaloflandinHongKong.HongKong,ChineseUniversityPress.14Maulenbelt,Karin(1994).UpgradingandDowngradingwithintheMetropolitanRegionofRotterdam,1970-90,UrbanStudiesVol.31,Issue7,Aug.1994:1167-1192.15Monk,S.,Pearce,B.,andWhitehead,C.(1991).Planning,landsupplyandhouseprices:aliteraturereview,Cambridge,U.K.,DepartmentofLandEconomy,UniversityofCambridge.16Phang,SYandWongWK(1997).GovernmentPoliciesandPrivateHousingPricesinSingapore,UrbanStudies,Vol.34,No.11(1997):1819-1829.17Walker,A.,Chau,K.W.andLai,W.C.(1995).HongKonginChina:realestateintheeconomy,HongKong:BrookeHillierParker.18Warren,Marcus(2000).EconomicAnalysisforPropertyandBusiness,Oxford:Butterworth