高盛对中国房地产开发商深度研究_42页_XXXX年

February22,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersGaoHuaSecuritiesInvestmentResearch1February22,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersReshufflingpicksonnewrisk/rewardanalysisamidtighteningLoweringtargetpricestoreflectnear-termtighteningriskWelowerour12-monthtargetpricesacrossourcoveragegroupby0%-32%afterincreasingourtargetpricediscountstoNAVby0-20percentagepoints(towithinarangeof10%-40%fromourprior0%-30%range).Thisreflectsourconcernofgreateruncertaintyarisingfromrecentgovernmentmacrotightening.Althoughwebelieveitspurposeistoslow,ratherthanreverse,China’seconomicrecovery,webelievethetighteningcouldaffectthepaceofdeveloperssellingpropertiesorrealizingtheirlandbankvalueinthenear-termandcouldthereforeweighonsharepriceperformance.Currentsharepricesareapproachingourbear-casevaluationRecentfallsmeansharepricesareonaverageonly8%higherthanourbear-caseyear-end2010NAV.Weviewourbear-caseNAVasattractiveentrylevels;aswewouldexpectpotentiallylessstringentgovernmenttighteningand/orstrongpropertytransactionvolumesupportintheeventthatourbear-caseplaysout—thatis30%reductioninpropertypricefromcurrentlevelsand35%fallinvolumeover2009.Eventhoughcurrentsharepricesremainconsiderablyaboveourworst-caseyear-end2010ENAV—ofa45%pricefallfromcurrentlevelsanda35%fallinvolume—wethinkthisscenarioisveryunlikelyunlessthereisaChinaeconomydoubledip.Pickingstocksonrisk/rewardagainstourbaseandbearcases(1)Welikestocksthatscreenashavingsignificantpotentialupsidetoourbase-casevaluations(our12-monthtargetprices)aswellaslimiteddownsidetoourbear-caseNAV.ThereverseistrueforourSell-ratedstocks.(2)WeexpectShenzhen’sresidentialpropertymarkettobemorevolatileinthenear-termamidgovernmentpolicytighteningtheregivenhigherspeculativeactivitiesinthecity.(3)Wethinkthepolicyoutlookforcommercialpropertyismorestable,althoughwedonotexpectastrongrecoveryinofficerentalsinkeycitiesin2010.WeupgradeYanlord(YNLG.SI)toBuyfromNeutral,Franshion(817.HK)toNeutralfromSell,downgradeSZI(604.HK)(toConv.list)andGreentown(3900.HK)toSellfromNeutral.WeretainBuyonAgile(3383.HK),Fantasia(1777.HK),R&F(2777.HK;onCL),Shimao(813.HK),Powerlong(1238.HK),Sino-Ocean(3377.HK),E-house(EJ),VankeA/B(0/200002.SZ),Gemdale(600383.SS)andPoly(600048.SS),butaddFantasiatoourConv.listinplaceofShimao.WeretainSellonCRL(1109.HK)andCWTC(600007.SS).Keyrisk:Governmentover-tighteningthatinducesmacrohardlanding.OURBASE,BEAR,ANDWORST-CASEVALUATIONS18-FebRatingLCY12-mthTPUpside/downsideUpside/downsideUpside/downsideFantasiaB*HK$2.6359%2.1027%1.661%Vanke(B)BHK$11.2742%9.7423%6.87-13%GemdaleBRmb17.4541%10.33-16%7.03-43%PowerlongBHK$2.9639%2.8634%2.02-6%R&FB*HK$15.5438%9.89-12%6.21-45%ShimaoBHK$16.3535%9.78-19%6.38-47%Vanke(A)BRmb12.4733%8.38-11%5.91-37%E-HouseBUS$22.7832%15.08-12%8.62-50%PolyBRmb25.5131%16.00-18%9.15-53%YanlordBS$2.2830%1.65-6%1.16-34%AgileBHK$12.8830%8.20-17%4.56-54%HuafaNRmb19.8229%12.22-20%9.49-38%SinoOceanBHK$8.4529%6.20-5%3.76-43%OCTNRmb18.8123%13.60-11%10.70-30%ShuiOnLandNHK$4.6322%4.1810%2.32-39%ForteNHK$2.4118%1.90-7%0.92-55%CountryGardenNHK$3.0517%2.01-23%1.09-58%SOHONHK$4.3816%4.2914%3.51-7%COLINHK$17.3716%12.11-19%8.76-42%KWGNHK$5.8916%3.92-23%2.31-55%CMP(A)NRmb26.1615%22.20-3%18.90-17%FinancialStreetNRmb12.2014%11.639%9.20-14%FranshionNHK$2.8211%2.31-9%1.65-35%GreentownSHK$10.6210%7.36-24%4.11-57%CRLSHK$15.843%11.06-28%7.80-49%SZInvS*HK$2.83-1%2.18-24%1.25-56%CWTCSRmb8.49-22%7.88-28%6.06-44%Average23%-8%-38%Base-casepricetargetsBear-casevaluationWorst-casevaluation*ThisstockisonourregionalConvictionlist.B=Buy,N=Neutral,S=Sell.PricesasofFebruary18,2010.Source:DataStream,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates.INTHISREPORT1.Weestablishourbear-casevaluationstohelpinvestorsgainexposuretothosestockswiththemostattractiverisk-rewardprofiles.2.Ourassessmentofdevelopers’financialrisksinourbearandworst-casescenarios.3.Weanalyzewhethergovernmentsocialhousinginvestmentissufficienttooffsetthepossibleslowdownintheprivatesectorifourbear-caseassumptionsarerealized.4.WeanalyzethepossiblesupplyoutlookinChina’smajorcitiesbyreviewingthehistoricalexperienceinShanghai’spropertymarketduring2005-2006.YiWang,CFA+86(21)2401-8930|[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedJasonSun+86(10)6627-3187|[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedWendy(Yunting)Luo+86(21)2401-8921|[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedVickyLi+86(21)2401-8926|[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedanditsaffiliatesdoandseektodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertification,seetheendofthetext.OtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentative.BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedInvestmentResearchFebruary22,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersGaoHuaSecuritiesInvestmentResearch2TableofcontentsNavigatingthetighteningcycle;introducingou