房地产投资动力学模型及其长期演化行为研究

,3000722,3000723,[e-mail]1.[1-4]2.2.1)(11ttXfX⋅+=+λσ1Xtf(Xt)179970043-1-)()(ttbttXsXAeXf−=2βbtXAeCobbDouglassbtAeA0tβ0βγ)(tXs−0γs12γβλσ)(11tXsXAeX−⋅+=+3[5]31Xt+1XtXtXt+1Xtst2tbtt3X34A33γβ)(XsAXLKX−⋅⋅=λ11ttt++X4K0LL1tXt0K34LK⋅124Xt342.21999[10]2649.07654.01)7.0(3172.61+)(ttttXXLKXg−⋅⋅==+5Xλ791.0,224.0,126.197,945.0,938.0=R22====DWSFR5XtK/L/-2-+⋅=LKa615773.7a0.28700.287Xe12649.07654.01)7.0(3172.6),(ttttXXaaXgX−⋅==+Xta[11][7]10a0.2656Xe=0,Xe0,0.7pXeaXe0→aXe0Xe1aXe1Xe0a0.26562[11]122464220.2656=a0.2792=a0.2820=48a16323a0.28Lyapunova0.2822,0.2854aa2835.0=a0.2854Lyapunov0.09702160.01759136142836.0=a0.2853Lyapunov550.35774044a0.2854,0.2870.03649-3-⋅)]1(0.2656,0(λ+⋅LK⋅3LK⋅1(2792.0),1(0.2656()]λλ++2LK⋅)]1(2820.0),1(2792.0(λλ++4LK⋅1632644LK⋅10.2656(1+)20.0136(1+)0.0028(1+)80.0002(1+)4LK⋅LK⋅0.28221+,0.28541+LK⋅)1(2835.0λ+=6(2836.0⋅LK)1λ+=⋅LKKL5-4-,LLK⋅)]1(0.2656,0(λ+⋅5.[12]7KLLK⋅0.28221+,0.2871+7LK⋅0,0.26561+11110.1156ua=0..0Xt0.43236u*0.43253u*6.]RBarro,S.Xavier,EconomicGrowth,NewYork[M],McGrawHill,1995[2]Stokey,AretherelimitstoGrowth?[J]InternationalEconomicReview,1998,39(1):1~31*7*2649.0541)7.0(11.03172.6uXXtt+−⋅⋅=+8u76*0,0.43253u*[1-5-[3][M]1999418~449[4][M]19931993,1~501994[J]2002172001nofDynamicalMofRealEstateyStudyonItsLong-termEvolutionaryBehaviourBymeansodelthatcandescribeevoluhen,basedonnonlineartheoryandtakingcomputersimulati,thelong-termevolutionarybehaviourofthisrealestateinvestmentmodelisdeeplystudieeconclusionsandnotedproblemsaboutrealestat[5][J]1990,1:49~50[6][M]1993[7][M]1993[8][M][9][M][10][M]1985[11]Lyapunov814~81646~59[12]··[M]nstructioCoodelSstemandChengGuo-ping,WangBo,YueYi-hong(SchoolofManagement,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072,China)Abstractofeconomicgrowththeoryandeconometricsknowledgeadynamicalmtionaryruleofrealestateinvestmentsystemisfirstlyconstructed.Tonastoold,andsomeinvestmentareproposed.Intheend,theemergingagentsofchaoticphenomenonintherealestateinvestmentsystemarefullyanalyzed.Keywords:economicgrowththeory;nonlineartheory;realestateinvestmentsystem;dynamicalmodelofrealestateinvestmentsystem;evolutionarybehaviour1973-6-