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www.colliers.com/chinaBeijingResidentialPropertyMarket北京住宅物业市场MarketOverview市场概览Thecentralandlocalgovernmentsmaintainedtighteningpoliciesonthehousingmarketin3Q10,includingthereiterationofthehousingloansuspensiontothirdhomebuyersandstrictcontrolsonidlelandandpre-salesmanagement,inordertocontinuouslycurbhousingprices.Consequently,theoverallluxuryresidentialsalesmarketwashaltedinthisquarter.However,itshowedsignsthatsentimentintheluxuryresidentialmarkethadturnedpositive,asevidencedbythereboundingtransactionvolumesofseveralprojectsandthestableaveragesalesprices.Underthecollectiveimpactofgrowingleasingdemandandtightexistingstock,theleasingmarketremainedactiveinthisquarter,asforecastinourpreviousreport,withtheoverallvacancyratedecliningandtheaveragerentescalatingduringthequarter.中央和地方政府在本季内继续保持对住宅房地产市场的调控政策，包括重申对购买第三套住房的购房者停止发放贷款，以及在管理闲置土地和房屋预售方面出台严格的管控措施。受此影响，整体豪华住宅销售市场在季内表现停滞。然而有迹象表明豪华住宅的市场情绪已有所好转，从一些项目成交量有所回升和平均售价保持坚挺可见一斑。正如前次报告所预测，租赁市场在增长的租赁需求和有限的住房存量影响下继续保持活跃，季内整体空置率有所下降，同时平均租金水平逐渐上升。Supply供应Whilsttherewasnonewcompletionintheluxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentsectorsin3Q10,threeprojects-ChateauDeLaVieandPalaisDeFortunephaseIIIintheCentralVillassubmarket,andLongforFantasticVillaintheEastCBDsubmarket-werecompletedinthevillasectorduringthequarter,adding294unitsofluxuryresidentialpropertiestothetotalstock.Asatend-3Q10,thetotalstockoftheluxuryresidentialmarketamountedto59,328units,up0.38%q-o-q.Fromasalesperspective,despiteluxuryapartmentprojectsofXanaduandImperialMansionintheCBDandJianguomensubmarketsenteringthemarketforpre-sales,supplyofnewluxuryresidentialpropertieswastightinthelocality,assomedeveloperspostponedtheirprojectlaunchingdatestothenextquarterbecauseofmarketinguncertainties.2010年第三季度中，豪华公寓和服务式公寓市场无新增供应。别墅市场方面，包括位于中央别墅区的清锦源和财富公馆三期，以及位于东CBD区的龙湖花墅香醍在内的三个项目竣工入市，豪华住宅物业市场总存量新增294套供应。截至第三季度末，豪华住宅市场总存量扩大至59,328套，环比增加0.38%。销售方面，尽管分别位于CBD和建国门子市场的豪华公寓项目禧瑞都和霞公府开始进行预售，但市场营销方面存在的不确定性，使一些发展商推迟新项目的开盘时间至下一季度，本地豪华住宅物业新增供应十分有限。EcOnOMicindicatOrS经济指标MarkEtPErfOrMancE市场表现Q32010|residentialchinaGdP*BeijingGdP*fai**Utilisedfdi**BeijingcPi**Bankrate**OverallresidentialSalesVolume**SupplyVacancyrentscapitalValuesOverallLuxuryapartmentsServicedapartmentsVillas11.1%12%3.5%25.9%1.7%5.4%***-40.8%GrowthTrendsRentsVacancyInspiteofthecontinuedtighteningpolicies,salesmarketsentimentturnedpositiveandtheleasingmarketremainedactive.TheKnowledgeReportBeijingOUtLOOk展望*Dataasofend-2Q10**Dataasofend-Aug10***ActualrateSource:BeijingStatisticsBureau,PBOC★Asaresultofincreasingbusinessactivitiesinthesummer,someMNCs,suchasHewlett-PackardandIBM,increasedtheirexpatriateheadcountintheirBeijingoperationsin3Q10,bringingaboutsomenewdemandforluxuryapartmentsandservicedapartmentpropertiesinBeijing.Inaddition,themarketrecordedagrowingnumberofshortstaysintheservicedapartmentsector,asinthecaseofFraserSuitesCBDBeijingandTheAscottBeijing.Totalnetabsorptionoftheluxuryresidentialmarket,thereforeexpandedto2,042unitsduringthequarter,with371,1,457,and214unitsinthevilla,luxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentsectors,respectively.Echoingthestrongdemand,theoverallvacancyratefellto20.15%atthesametime,down3.06percentagepointsq-o-q.Inparticular,vacancyratesofthevilla,luxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentsectorsdecreased,respectively,by1.07,4.05and2.53percentagepointsq-o-q,to26.92%,17.79%and19.43%asatend-3Q10.一些跨国企业因夏季增多的商务活动而增加其在北京的外派员工数量，例如惠普及IBM，为北京豪华公寓和服务式公寓市场带来新的需求。另外，北京辉盛庭国际公寓和北京雅诗阁等服务式公寓的短期居住需求有所提升。季内北京豪华住宅市场净吸纳量上升至2,042套，其中别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓分别录得371、1,457和214套。受益于强劲的需求，整体空置率下滑至20.15%，环比降低3.06个百分点。具体来说，别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓之空置率分别下降至26.92%、17.79%以及19.43%，环比降低1.07、4.05和2.53个百分点。rents租金TheaveragerentoftheBeijingluxuryresidentialmarketincreasedtoRMB144.76psmpermonthasofend-3Q10,up3.19%q-o-q,asaconsequenceofgrowingdemandandlandlords’strongerstance.ItisinterestingtonotethattheincreaseinthenumberofshortstaysintheservicedapartmentsyieldedariseofADRsinmanypropertiesinthesector.Bycontrast,becausetheluxuryapartmentmarkethadalreadygainedaremarkablerentalincreasein2Q10,therentalgrowthrateofthesectorwasrelativelymoderateinthisquarter.Insummary,averagerentofvillas,luxuryapartmentsandservicedapartmentsgrewby2.98%,2.47%and5.82%q-o-q,toRMB102.38psmpermonth,RMB140.22psmpermonthandRMB187.95psmpermonth,respectively.有鉴于不断增长的需求和业主方面更强势的市场姿态，北京豪华住宅市场平均租金上升至每月每平方米人民币144.76元，环比上涨3.19%。值得注意的是，服务式公寓短期居住需求的增加使这一市场内多个物业的平均房价水平得以提升。相比之下，由于豪华公寓市场已在第二季度中录得租金明显上涨，本季内其涨幅相对温和。总体而言，别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓的平均租金分别录得2.98%、2.47%及5.82%的环比增长，上升至每月每平方米人民币102.38元、140.22元和187.95元。demand需求Chart2:BeijingLuxuryResidentialMarketRentsbySector图2：北京豪华住宅市场各物业类型租金Chart1:BeijingLuxuryResidentialMarketNewSupply,NetAbsorptionandVacancyRates图1：北京豪华住宅市场新增供应和净吸纳量Source:Research,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部Source:Research,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部ServicedApartment|服务式公寓LuxuryApartment|豪华公寓OverallAverage|Villa|别墅2502001501005001Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q10RMB/sqm/month|人民币每月每平米4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000-500-1000Units|NewSupply|新增供应量NetAbsorption|VacancyRates|空置率35%30%25%20%15%10%5%