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Whoppertogo至尊汉堡，打包带走WillBurgerKingbegobbledupbyprivateequity?汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？Sep2nd2010|NEWYORKSHARESinBurgerKing(BK)soaredonSeptember1stonreportsthatthefast-foodcompanywastalkingtoseveralprivate-equityfirmsinterestedinbuyingit.Howmuchbeefwasbehindthesestorieswasunclear.Butlatelythecompanyfamousfortheslogan“HaveItYourWay”hascertainlynotbeenhavingititsownway.TheremaybeargumentsaboutwhetherBKorMcDonald’sservesthebestfries,butthereisnodoubtwhichismorepopularwithstockmarketinvestors:themakeroftheBigMachassupersizeditsleadinthepasttwoyears.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大自己的优势。RecessionhasfavouredMcDonald’soverBK,whosesharepricehasfallenbyhalfsincetheeconomywasflame-grilledinthesummerof2008.SharesinMcDonald’shaverisen,reachinganall-timehighinAugust.Same-storesalesatBKhavefallenforfivesuccessivequarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。WhyhasMcDonald’sbeeneatingBK’slunch?Amongotherthings,BKhasalwayshadahigherproportionofsalestoyoungmen,whohavebeenhitespeciallyhardbytherecession.McDonald’s,bycontrast,hasforseveralyearswooedwomenandolderpeoplewithrelativelyhealthysaladsanddrinkablecoffee.BKhasstruggledtofollowsuit.Atthesametime,ithashadtocontendwithangryshareholders,astherisingcostofbeefandotheringredientshasclobbereditsprofits.BKmayalsohavecannibaliseditsexistingsalesbyofferingvaluemealsthatwereabittooirresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。BKisusedtochangesinownership.ItwentfrombeingpartofPillsbury,afoodcompany,toGrandMetropolitan,aBritishconglomerate,thentoDiageo,adrinksgiant.In2002itwassoldtoagroupofprivate-equityinvestors:TPG,BainCapitalandGoldmanSachs.Theydidafairjob,improvingsaleswithbettermarketing.TheyalsohelpedturnaroundthemosttroubledofthefranchiseeswhooperatemostBKrestaurants.In2006BKfloateditssharesagain.Itsbossesmayhopethatgoingprivateoncemorewillprotectthemfromshort-termstockmarketpressureswhiletheyponderhowtobeatMcDonald’s.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。IfBKdoesgoprivate,itmaybepartofatrendintheprivate-equityindustry—nowthatsomeofthebiggerfirmshaverediscoveredtheirappetitefordeals—ofgobblingupthecompaniestheyhadtakenpublicduringthebubbleyearsbutwhicharenowtradingcheaply.TPG,BainCapitalandGoldmanSachsstillownasizeablestakeinBK,despitelistingitontheNewYorkStockExchangein2006.However,itseemsthatotherprivate-equityfirmsareinterestedinbuyingit.Ifthathappens,nodoubtBKserverswillappreciatetheirony:theactofpassingacompanyfromoneprivate-equityfirmtoanotherisknowninthebusinessas“flipping”.私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。本主题由shiyi18于2010-11-1213:16移动评分收藏2分享000Downtheslipway下水“Quantitativeeasing”isunlovedandunappreciated—butitisworking“量化宽松”不受待见，但是有效Nov4th2010|Washington,dcEVENbeforetheFederalReserveunveileditssecondroundofquantitativeeasing(QE)onNovember3rd,criticshadalreadydenounceditasineffectualoraninvitationtoinflation.Itcannotbebothanditmaynotbeeither.美联储的第二轮量化宽松政策在11月3日公布之前便已受到了各方抨击，有人说它不会起效，也有人说这样会导致通胀。这两者根本不可能同时发生，甚至一个都不会发生。Theannouncementof“QE2”washardlybreathtaking.TheFedsaiditwillbuy$600billionofTreasuriesbetweennowandnextJune,atabout$75billionamonth,althoughitalsosaiditcouldadjusttheamountandtimingifneedbe.Thatwasaboutwhatmarketsexpectedbutfarlessthanthe$1.75trillionofdebtitboughtbetweenearly2009andearly2010initsfirstroundofQE.YetQE2seemsalreadytohaveexceededthelowexpectationsithasaroused.SinceBenBernanke,chairmanoftheFed,hintedatitatJacksonHoleonAugust27th,marketshavealldoneexactlywhattheyshould(seechart).第二轮量化宽松并没有惊人之处。美联储称，从现在起到明年6月，它将购买6000亿美元美国国债，相当于每月购买750亿美元，但具体数字可能随情况进行调整。这一规模与市场预期相当，远低于2009年初至2010年初第一轮量化宽松（总共购买债务1.75万亿美元）。但第二轮量化宽松似乎已经超过了它所引起的低预期。自美联储主席本?伯南克于8月27日在杰克森霍尔（JacksonHole）暗示这一计划以来，市场对此已有了充分的反映（见图）。UnderQEtheFedbuyslong-termbondswithnewlycreatedmoney.Thislowerslong-termyieldsandchasesinvestorsintoriskier,alternativeinvestments.Therealyieldonten-year,inflation-indexedTreasurybondshasfallenfrom1.05%to0.5%,aresultofrelativelyflatnominalyieldsandariseinexpectedinflation.Theyieldontheirfive-yearcousinsisnegative(seeButtonwood).Sharepricesareupby14%inthesameperiod.Loweryieldsmakethedollarlessappealing:ithasdulyfallenby5%againsttheJapaneseyen,by9%againsttheeuroandby5%onatrade-weightedbasis.“YoucandeclareQEtobeasuccessalready,”saysonehedge-fundeconomist.“Whetherthistranslatesintorealactivityremainsaquestion-mark.Butthequestionofwhetherthemechanismwouldworkhasbeenanswered.”在量化宽松计划中，美联储将通过发行新钞买入长期债券。这压低了后者的收益率，使投资者转向风险更高的替代投资品。在名义收益