当前位置:首页 > 行业资料 > 国内外标准规范 > 基于人工神经网络的石油化工工程建设项目管理绩效评价
:2010202205:,Tel:010259962309;E2mail:hanzg@sinopec.com.cn:100128719(2010)03203172071,1,2,1(1.,200237;2.,100728):,(ANN)50287,10,6,BPBP4,BPBP,BP,2,:;;;(ANN):F224:Adoi:10.3969/j.issn.100128719.2010.03.001MANAGEMENTPERFORMANCEEVALUATIONINPETROCHEMICALENGINEERINGCONSTRUCTIONPROJECTBYUSINGARTIFICIALNEURALNETWORKHANZhiguo1,WANGJiming1,2,CHENZhigao1(1.EastChinaUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Shanghai200237,China;2.ChinaPetrochemicalCorporation,Beijing100728,China)Abstract:Anartificialneuralnetworkmodel(ANN)wasdevelopedforthemanagementperformanceevaluationofpetrochemicalengineeringconstructionproject.Byusingthedatafrom287samplesof50projects,inwhich10factorswereasinputsand6indicatorsasoutputs,trainingandtestweregiventofourkindsofANNmodels,BP2NN,GA2basedBP2NN,radialbasisfunctionneuralnetwork(RBF2NN)andgeneralizedregressionneuralnetwork(GR2NN).Bycomparingthemeansquareerrors,itisfoundthatGA2basedBP2NNispriortoBP2NN,GR2NNispriortoformer,andRBF2NNhasbestaccuracy.ItisverifiedbytheillustrationsoftwocasesthatANNmodelisfeasibleandvalidtothemanagementperformanceevaluationofpetrochemicalengineeringconstructionproject.Keywords:petrochemicalengineeringconstructionproject;projectmanagement;performanceevaluation;artificialneuralnetwork(ANN),,,[1],,()20106ACTAPETROLEISINICA(PETROLEUMPROCESSINGSECTION)263,,,,,,11.1,,Bryde[2]EFQM(Europeanfoundationforqualitymanagement)PMPA(Projectmanagementperformanceassessment)PMPA,(16)(KPI)6,,[3],,[4],(HSE)[5],,1.2,,,,,,[6][7],,[8],[9-10][11][8],[12-13][14][8][15][16-17](ANN)[18-19]2,BP(BP2NN,Backpropagationneuralnetwork),,2090[20][21][22][23],Dikmen[18]Cheung[24],Elhag[25],Cheng[26],,Ling[27]65,813()26411,DB,[19],33.1,3BP,BP,4BPBP,3BP,HSE10,HSE62,,106,BP,1106,xiyj(i=1,2,10;j=1,2,6)1BPFig.1BP2NNmodelofprojectmanagementperformanceevaluationforpetrochemicalengineeringconstructionBP,,3.2,2,,2009573252324,287,5088.6%106,103,30617,,91332,,Cronbachs,11,01,0.71,0.7,1BPCronbachsTable1ThereliabilitytestofinputandoutputvariablesforBP2NNmodelbyCronbachsOrganSchemeCommunicationcoordinationSchedulemanageCostmanageQualitymanageHSEmanageTechnologymanageContractmanageRiskmanage0.8520.9150.8790.8840.8950.9220.9310.9430.8680.940(Validity),,,0.5,300.76,4MATLAB7.6.0,SigmoidTransig()Purelin()Trainlm()BPTrainlm(),Newff()Sigmoid01,,(1)106(2),y=(x-xmin)/(xmax-xmin)(1)y=XOutput(xmax-xmin)+xmin(2)(1)(2)xmax=7xmin=1,XOutput(Crossvalidation),2873121572,,MATLAB7.6.01540,5,,22(Meansquareerror),(Meanabsoluteerror)2Table2TheresultsofnodenumberinhiddenlayerbythecomparisonofthetrainedandtesteddataTrainingNo.NodenumberinhiddenlayerMeansquareerrorMeanabsoluteerror1150.05330.16602200.04810.15603250.05100.16244300.05070.17445350.05800.18406400.07150.19742,20,0.0480.156,12055.1BP()1023()26,5000.00760.9711,,,,0.02,,0.01,Trainlm()BP215,72,0.0258,0.122322BPFig.2ThetesterrorcurveofBP2NNforprojectmanagementperformanceevaluationofpetrochemicalengineeringconstruction(1)Train;(2)Goal5.2BP,,,,,,,,500,BP(GABP)5.1,0.05,215,720.0213,0.1132,BPBP5.3BPBPBP(Radialbasisfunction)(RBF2NN),(Generalizedregressionneuralnetwork,GR2NN)RBF,(Radbas),Radbas,0.02,0.25,0.0182,0.099711,,,0.0199,0.11285.443434Table3MeansquareerrorandmeanabsoluteerroroffourkindsofANNKindofANNMeansquareerrorMeanabsoluteerrorBP2NN0.02580.1223GA2basedBP2NN0.02130.1132RBF2NN0.01820.0997GR2NN0.01990.11283,,4,BP1233,2,;BP,62,,(1),(1)3,,HSE10,,Input()1:input=[6.3148,7.0000,6.3434,5.6822,6.3532,6.3390,6.0000,6.6706,5.6758,6.3314];input_gy=[0.8858,1.0000,0.8906,0.7804,0.8922,0.8898,0.8333,0.9451,0.7793,0.8886]2:input=[6.3805,4.6817,5.0000,4.0000,5.0000,4.6659,5.0000,6.3340,4.3238,5.0000];input_gy=[0.8968,0.6136,0.6667,0.5000,0.6667,0.6110,0.6667,0.8890,0.5540,0.6667](2)output=sim(net,input_gy),21:output=[1.0027,0.7557,0.7484,0.8243,0.9941,0.8460]2:output=[0.7571,0.6805,0.7709,0.6316,0.7957,0.8691](3)(2),217HSE6,44,4(RBF2NN)2Table4ThemanagementperformanceevaluationresultsoftwopetrochemicalengineeringconstructionprojectbyRBF2NNQualityCostTimeHSETechnologyProfitCase1Expectationoutput7.00005.00006.00006.00007.00006.0000Modeloutput7.01615.53435.49075.94616.96486.0762Case2Expectationoutput6.00005.00006.00005.00006.00006.0000Modeloutput5.54285.08295.62554.78945.77446.21487,BPBP4,,,[1].[J].,2007,(7):45249.(WANGJiming.ManagementmodeinnovationinmajorpetrochemicalengineeringprojectforSino2petrochemicalindustry[J].SinopecMonthly,2007,(7):45-49.)[2]BRYDEDJ.Modelingprojectmanagementperformance[J].InternationalJournalofQuality&ReliabilityManagement,2003,20(2):2292254.[3]ATKINSONR.Projectmanagement:Cost,timeandquality,twobestguessesandaphenomenon,itstimetoacceptothersuccesscriteria[J].InternationalJournalofProjectManagement,1999,17(2):3372342.[4]SHENHARAJ,DVIRD,LEVIO,etal.Projectsuccess:Amultidimensionalstrategicconcept[J].Long2RangePlanning,2001,34:6992725.[5]CHANAPC,CHANAPL.Keyperformanceindicatorsformeasuringconstructionsuccess[J].Benchmarking:AnInternationalJournal,2004,11(2):2032221.[6]YUAG,FLETTPD,BOWERSJA.Developinga223()26value2centeredproposalforassessingprojectsuccess[J].InternationalJournalofProj
本文标题:基于人工神经网络的石油化工工程建设项目管理绩效评价
链接地址:https://www.777doc.com/doc-9095275 .html